The following tips to reduce the chances of losing when we play dice are based on a strategy called “Calculation of low fees”. Of course, there are many other tactics but, on this occasion, we will refer to this, as we consider it quite accurate from the point of view of statistics. It will be necessary, then:
We must determine the number of favorable outcomes in each situation
Suppose we are going to bet on throwing a single die. In such case, we bet on the number in which we consider that the die will be dropped once it is released. Suppose, furthermore (within the same hypothetical situation), that we bet on a 1 or a 2. In this case, there are two possibilities for winners, that is: if the die falls by 2, we win and, if it falls in 1, too. Therefore, we have two possible favorable results.
However, there is another perspective from which we can analyze the same situation. It is possible to see the situation as a total number of possible outcomes, minus the number of favorable outcomes. Then, when casting a dice, the total number of possible outcomes is equal to six, one for each die. To return to the example, we have to subtract two (the number of favorable results, let us remember) of six, thus: 6 – 2 = 4, which is the number of unfavorable results.
In addition, we could subtract the number of unfavorable results from the number of possible outcomes, in order to find the number of favorable outcomes.
It is very important to express quotas in a numerical way
Usually, quotas are expressed as “the ratio of favorable results to unfavorable results”, normally using two points. Returning to the example we were drawing, the odds for our probability of success are 2: 4, that is, two chances to win against four chances of losing. Then, if we proceed to divide both terms by the common multiple of two, it is possible to simplify as a normal fraction of 1:2, a relation that can be defined as a “quota of 2 to 1”.
In the same order of ideas, we can represent this relation in the manner of a fraction which, for the example at hand, expresses 2/4 which can be simplified as 1/2. Thus, a ½ share does not mean that we have half or 50% chance of winning because, in fact, the probability of success is 33.33 or, what is the same, 1/3. We must remember that quotas are the ratio of favorable to unfavorable results and not a numerical measure of the odds we have to win.
Let us determine the number of unfavorable results
It turns out that in gambling, the possibility of losing is always present. If we bet that we are going to draw a 1 or a 2, it means that, we will lose if we get a 3, a 4, a 5 or a 6. In view of that we can lose when taking any of these last four numbers, we have that there are four results unfavorable.